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Causes of modern climate changes in the Arctic
Based on our previously performed calculations of irradiation with high spatial and temporal resolutions, using data from high-precision astronomical ephemerides, changes in the intensity of summer irradiation in the polar and equatorial 5-degree latitude zones of the Northern Hemisphere were analyzed. Over the period of 1900–2050 AD, a decrease in the intensity of summer irradiation in the polar region and its increase in the equatorial region were observed. The consequences of this phenomenon are an increase in the meridional gradient of insolation and an increase in the intensity of the meridional transfer of radiative heat associated with the rise of land surface air temperature and ocean surface temperature in the Arctic.
The faster temperature increase in the Arctic compared to other regions can be explained by the fact that energy (heat) is transferred from a larger area (heat source) to a smaller one (heat sink). In the summer half-year, the source area of radiative heat is 4.5 times greater than the sink area. As a result, the relative values of thermal energy (temperature) increase.
It is shown that based on the relationships between the patterns of the natural environment in the Arctic and the characteristics of its irradiation, it is possible to predict climate changes and the natural environment state in the Arctic on the basis of the characteristics of irradiation calculated for future time periods.
Solar climate of the Arctic in the Neopleistocene
Statistical characteristics of changes in the intensity of annual and seasonal irradiation at the upper boundary of the atmosphere of 5-degree latitude zones of the Arctic region in the Late Pleistocene were obtained. No relationship was found between the intensity of annual and seasonal irradiation of 5-degree latitude zones and the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit, but a positive noticeable relationship was found between the intensity of summer irradiation and a negative relationship between the intensity of winter irradiation and a change in the tilt of the axis and the longitude of the perihelion. The maximum range of variations in winter irradiation intensity in the Arctic with geographic latitude in the Late Pleistocene noticeably (by 10,211 W/ m2) decreases, while the maximum range of variations in summer irradiation intensity with geographic latitude slightly (by 4.3 W/m2) increases. The correlation coefficient of summer irradiation intensity and perihelion longitude in the Late Pleistocene decreases with geographic latitude, and increases with the tilt of the rotation axis. The modulus of the correlation coefficient of winter irradiation intensity with perihelion longitude decreases, and increases with the tilt of the rotation axis. The maximum range of changes in the intensity of annual and seasonal irradiation of 5-degree latitudinal zones by 1–2 orders of magnitude in the Late Pleistocene exceeds the maximum variations in the δ18 O isotope-oxygen analysis of benthic foraminifera, which shows the groundlessness of using its values to solve problems of Late Pleistocene geochronology and climatostratigraphy.