Based on V.I. Vernadsky’s teaching of the biosphere and modern scientific data, an attempt was made to analyze the mechanisms of the dynamics of modern global processes using the example of climate changes. Possible causes of the warming, both natural and anthropogenic, observed in the last century are considered. It is shown that it is the increase in temperature that causes the increase in the concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere, and not vice versa, as follows from the greenhouse effect hypothesis. This seems to be the main cause for the low effectiveness of any international efforts to stabilize the climate. The course of natural processes, as well as the evolution of the biosphere as a whole, has an unstable, cyclical nature, running according to its own laws. Particular attention is paid to V.I. Vernadsky’s doctrine of the biosphere, his views on the role of reason and scientific research in solving problems inevitably arisen in the course of evolution on Earth, caused by the rapidly developing, from a historical standpoint, humanity. Scientific research is a reliable defender of both the interests of mankind and the biosphere as a whole. This was V.I. Vernadsky’s basis of his positive outlook on the future of our civilization and the biosphere.

The problem of global climate warming and attempts to solve it, including using low-carbon power engineering, are analyzed. The success of solving this problem depends on the degree of understanding of the processes which cause it. As more and more data speak about natural causes of climate fluctuations, and of anthropogenic factors the greatest contribution to the warming is made by thermal pollution rather than the anthropogenic growth of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, low-carbon power, with all its positive qualities, is unable to solve the problem of climate warming.

Based on our previously performed calculations of irradiation with high spatial and temporal resolutions, using data from high-precision astronomical ephemerides, changes in the intensity of summer irradiation in the polar and equatorial 5-degree latitude zones of the Northern Hemisphere were analyzed. Over the period of 1900–2050 AD, a decrease in the intensity of summer irradiation in the polar region and its increase in the equatorial region were observed. The consequences of this phenomenon are an increase in the meridional gradient of insolation and an increase in the intensity of the meridional transfer of radiative heat associated with the rise of land surface air temperature and ocean surface temperature in the Arctic.

The faster temperature increase in the Arctic compared to other regions can be explained by the fact that energy (heat) is transferred from a larger area (heat source) to a smaller one (heat sink). In the summer half-year, the source area of radiative heat is 4.5 times greater than the sink area. As a result, the relative values of thermal energy (temperature) increase.

It is shown that based on the relationships between the patterns of the natural environment in the Arctic and the characteristics of its irradiation, it is possible to predict climate changes and the natural environment state in the Arctic on the basis of the characteristics of irradiation calculated for future time periods.