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Zhizn Zemli [Life of the Earth] 48, no 3

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Zhizn Zemli [Life of the Earth] 48, no 3

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DOI

10.29003/m5447.0514-7468.2026_48_3/338-348

EDN SAFLMQ

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Authors:

Fedorov, V.M.

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Keywords:

astronomical theory of climate, insolation, caloric half-years
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pp. 338–348

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Fedorov, V.M., “Problem of ‘caloric’ half-years in the astronomical theory of climate changes”, Zhizn Zemli [Life of the Earth] 48, no 3, 338–348 (2026) (in Russ., abstr. in Engl.). DOI: 10.29003/m5447.0514-7468.2026_48_3/338-348.

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Problem of “caloric” half-years in the astronomical theory of climate changes

V.M. Fedorov1, PhD
1 Lomonosov Moscow State University

Despite the fact that Milutin Milanković formulated the most comprehensive concept linking the succession of Ice Ages to the secular changes (determined by astronomical factors) in insolation, it contains significant shortcomings. Since Milanković simplified his calculation algorithm to the level of the irradiation of individual parallels for “caloric” half-years of equal duration, the reliability of his insolation values should be checked. It is shown that the results of only one-third of Milanković’s calculations approximately reflect the actual irradiation of particular parallels over a half-year. Due to his simplifications, the calculation results are far from reality in two-thirds of all the cases. Milanković’s concept is based on two fundamental physical interactions known in the macrocosm (gravitational and electromagnetic), fluctuations of which could determine global changes in the natural environment and human habitation on the Earth. Identifying the problems in the astronomical theory of climate changes can contribute to its modernization and improvement, creating opportunities for explaining the causes of current climate changes and predicting global environmental changes in the future.

Список литературы

  1. Alisov, B.P, Poltaraus, B.V., Klimatologiya (Moscow: Moskovskiy universitet, 1974) (in Russian).
  2. Budyko, M.I., Climate in the past and future (Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1980) (in Russian).
  3. Imbrie, J., Imbrie, K.P., Ice Ages: Solving the Mystery (Short Hills, N.J.: Enslow Publishers, 1979). 224 p.
  4. Mel’nikov, V.P., Smul’skiy, I.I., Astronomical Theory of Ice Ages: New Approximations. Solved and Unsolved Problems (Novosibirsk: GEO, 2009) (in Russian).
  5. Milankovich, M., Mathematical Climatology and the Astronomical Theory of Climate Fluctuations (Moscow–Leningrad: GONTI, 1939) (in Russian).
  6. Fedorov, V.M., “The problem of meridional heat transport in the astronomical theory of climate”, Geophysical processes and the biosphere 18 (3), 117–128 (2019). DOI:10.21455/GPB2019.3-8 (in Russian).
  7. Fedorov, V.M., “Causes of paleoclimatic changes in the Neopleistocene of Northern Eurasia”, Zhizn Zemli 47 (3), 348–358 (2025). DOI: 10.29003/m4740.0514-7468.2025_47_3/348-358 (in Russian).
  8. Fedorov, V.M., “Isotopic and solar geochronology and climatostratigraphy of the Neoplueistocene of northern Eurasia”, Geomagnetism and aeronomy 65 (4), 552–563 (2025). DOI: 10.31857/S0016794025040133 (in Russian).
  9. Fedorov, V.M., Kostin, A.A., Frolov, D.M., “The effect of the Earth’s shape on the characteristics of surface radiation”, Geophysical processes and the biosphere 19 (3), 119–130 (2020). DOI: 10.21455/GPB2020.3-7 (in Russian).
  10. Fedorov, V.M., Kostin, A.A., Frolov, D.M., “Balance of Transit Radiation in the Earth’s Surrounding Space”, Space Research 60 (2), 116–124 (2022). DOI: 10.31857/S0023420622020030 (in Russian).
  11. Fedorov, V.M., Frolov, D.M., Fedorova, E.V., “Ocean level fluctuations, oceanic sedimentation, and climatic precession over the past 130,000 years”, Zhizn Zemli 48 (1), 11–20 (2026). DOI: 10.29003/m5043.0514-7468.2026_48_1/11-20 (in Russian).
  12. Khromov, S.P., Petrosyanc, M.A., Meteorology and climatology (Moscow: MGU, 2006) (in Russian).
  13. Sharaf, Sh.G., Budnikova, N.A., “Centennial Changes in the Earth’s Orbit and the Astronomical Theory of Climate Fluctuations”, Proc. of the Institute of Theoretical Astronomy of the USSR Academy of Sciences 14, 48–84 (1969) (in Russian).
  14. Berger, A., “Long-term variation of caloric insolation resulting from the Earth’s orbital elements”, Quaternary research 9, 139–167 (1978).
  15. Berger, A., Loutre, M.F., “Insolation values for the climate of the last 10 million years”, Quaternary Science Reviews 10, 297–317 (1991).
  16. Brouwer, D., van Woerkom, A.J.J., “The secular variation of the orbital elements of the principal planets”, Astronomical Papers 13, 81–107 (1950).
  17. Hays, J.D., Imbrie, J., Shackleton, N., “Variation in the Earth’s orbit: pacemaker of the ice ages”, Science 194, 1121–1132 (1976).
  18. KÖppen, W., Wegener, A., Die Klimate der geologischen Vorzeit (Berlin.: Gebruder Bornetraeger, 1924).
  19. Lagrange, J.-L., Théorie des variations séculaires des éléments des planètes (Berlin: Decker, 1781. V. 5).
  20. Laplace, P.S., Traite de Mécanique Céleste (Paris: Bachelier Libraire, 1825. V. 5).
  21. Laskar, J., Joutel, F., Boudin, F., “Orbital, precessional and insolation quantities for the Earth from – 20 Myr to + 10 Myr”, Astronomy & Astrophysics 287 (1993).
  22. Milankovich, M., Théorie mathématique des phénomènes thermique produits par la radiation solaire (Paris: Gauthier-Villars, 1920).
  23. Oliveira, E.D., “Daily INSOLation (DINSOL-v1.0): an intuitive tool for classrooms and specifying solar radiation boundary conditions”, Geoscientific Model Development, 2023. (16):2371–2390. DOI:10.5194/gmd-16-2371-2023.
  24. Pilgrim, L., “Versuch einer rechnerischen Behandlung des Eiszeitalters”, Jahresheften des Vereins für vaterländische Naturkunde in Württemberg 60, 26–117 (1904).
  25. Stockwell, J.N., Memoir on the secular variations of the elements of the orbits of the eight principal Planets, Mercury, Venus, The Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune: with tables of the same: together with the obliquity of the ecliptic, and the precession of the equinoxes in both longitude and right ascension (Washington: Smithsonian Institute, 1872).
  26. Vernekar, A., “Long-period global variations of incoming solar radiation”, Series: Meteorological Monographs. American Meteorological Society 12 (34), 128 (1972).

References

  1. Alisov, B.P, Poltaraus, B.V., Klimatologiya (Moscow: Moskovskiy universitet, 1974) (in Russian).
  2. Budyko, M.I., Climate in the past and future (Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1980) (in Russian).
  3. Imbrie, J., Imbrie, K.P., Ice Ages: Solving the Mystery (Short Hills, N.J.: Enslow Publishers, 1979). 224 p.
  4. Mel’nikov, V.P., Smul’skiy, I.I., Astronomical Theory of Ice Ages: New Approximations. Solved and Unsolved Problems (Novosibirsk: GEO, 2009) (in Russian).
  5. Milankovich, M., Mathematical Climatology and the Astronomical Theory of Climate Fluctuations (Moscow–Leningrad: GONTI, 1939) (in Russian).
  6. Fedorov, V.M., “The problem of meridional heat transport in the astronomical theory of climate”, Geophysical processes and the biosphere 18 (3), 117–128 (2019). DOI:10.21455/GPB2019.3-8 (in Russian).
  7. Fedorov, V.M., “Causes of paleoclimatic changes in the Neopleistocene of Northern Eurasia”, Zhizn Zemli 47 (3), 348–358 (2025). DOI: 10.29003/m4740.0514-7468.2025_47_3/348-358 (in Russian).
  8. Fedorov, V.M., “Isotopic and solar geochronology and climatostratigraphy of the Neoplueistocene of northern Eurasia”, Geomagnetism and aeronomy 65 (4), 552–563 (2025). DOI: 10.31857/S0016794025040133 (in Russian).
  9. Fedorov, V.M., Kostin, A.A., Frolov, D.M., “The effect of the Earth’s shape on the characteristics of surface radiation”, Geophysical processes and the biosphere 19 (3), 119–130 (2020). DOI: 10.21455/GPB2020.3-7 (in Russian).
  10. Fedorov, V.M., Kostin, A.A., Frolov, D.M., “Balance of Transit Radiation in the Earth’s Surrounding Space”, Space Research 60 (2), 116–124 (2022). DOI: 10.31857/S0023420622020030 (in Russian).
  11. Fedorov, V.M., Frolov, D.M., Fedorova, E.V., “Ocean level fluctuations, oceanic sedimentation, and climatic precession over the past 130,000 years”, Zhizn Zemli 48 (1), 11–20 (2026). DOI: 10.29003/m5043.0514-7468.2026_48_1/11-20 (in Russian).
  12. Khromov, S.P., Petrosyanc, M.A., Meteorology and climatology (Moscow: MGU, 2006) (in Russian).
  13. Sharaf, Sh.G., Budnikova, N.A., “Centennial Changes in the Earth’s Orbit and the Astronomical Theory of Climate Fluctuations”, Proc. of the Institute of Theoretical Astronomy of the USSR Academy of Sciences 14, 48–84 (1969) (in Russian).
  14. Berger, A., “Long-term variation of caloric insolation resulting from the Earth’s orbital elements”, Quaternary research 9, 139–167 (1978).
  15. Berger, A., Loutre, M.F., “Insolation values for the climate of the last 10 million years”, Quaternary Science Reviews 10, 297–317 (1991).
  16. Brouwer, D., van Woerkom, A.J.J., “The secular variation of the orbital elements of the principal planets”, Astronomical Papers 13, 81–107 (1950).
  17. Hays, J.D., Imbrie, J., Shackleton, N., “Variation in the Earth’s orbit: pacemaker of the ice ages”, Science 194, 1121–1132 (1976).
  18. KÖppen, W., Wegener, A., Die Klimate der geologischen Vorzeit (Berlin.: Gebruder Bornetraeger, 1924).
  19. Lagrange, J.-L., Théorie des variations séculaires des éléments des planètes (Berlin: Decker, 1781. V. 5).
  20. Laplace, P.S., Traite de Mécanique Céleste (Paris: Bachelier Libraire, 1825. V. 5).
  21. Laskar, J., Joutel, F., Boudin, F., “Orbital, precessional and insolation quantities for the Earth from – 20 Myr to + 10 Myr”, Astronomy & Astrophysics 287 (1993).
  22. Milankovich, M., Théorie mathématique des phénomènes thermique produits par la radiation solaire (Paris: Gauthier-Villars, 1920).
  23. Oliveira, E.D., “Daily INSOLation (DINSOL-v1.0): an intuitive tool for classrooms and specifying solar radiation boundary conditions”, Geoscientific Model Development, 2023. (16):2371–2390. DOI:10.5194/gmd-16-2371-2023.
  24. Pilgrim, L., “Versuch einer rechnerischen Behandlung des Eiszeitalters”, Jahresheften des Vereins für vaterländische Naturkunde in Württemberg 60, 26–117 (1904).
  25. Stockwell, J.N., Memoir on the secular variations of the elements of the orbits of the eight principal Planets, Mercury, Venus, The Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune: with tables of the same: together with the obliquity of the ecliptic, and the precession of the equinoxes in both longitude and right ascension (Washington: Smithsonian Institute, 1872).
  26. Vernekar, A., “Long-period global variations of incoming solar radiation”, Series: Meteorological Monographs. American Meteorological Society 12 (34), 128 (1972).