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Zhizn Zemli [Life of the Earth] 47, no 2
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Zhizn Zemli [Life of the Earth] 47, no 2

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DOI

10.29003/m4689.0514-7468.2020_47_2/203-214

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Authors:

Fedorov, V.M., Chukov, V.S., Frolov, D.M.

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Keywords:

solar radiation; greenhouse effect; water vapor; insolation; axis tilt; meridional heat transfer; global Earth climate.

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Fedorov, V.M., Chukov, V.S., Frolov, D.M., “Causes of modern climate changes in the Arctic”, Zhizn Zemli [Life of the Earth] 47, no 2, 203–214 (2025) (in Russ., abstr. in Engl.). DOI: 10.29003/m4689.0514-7468.2020_47_2/203-214.

Causes of modern climate changes in the Arctic

Based on our previously performed calculations of irradiation with high spatial and temporal resolutions, using data from high-precision astronomical ephemerides, changes in the intensity of summer irradiation in the polar and equatorial 5-degree latitude zones of the Northern Hemisphere were analyzed. Over the period of 1900–2050 AD, a decrease in the intensity of summer irradiation in the polar region and its increase in the equatorial region were observed. The consequences of this phenomenon are an increase in the meridional gradient of insolation and an increase in the intensity of the meridional transfer of radiative heat associated with the rise of land surface air temperature and ocean surface temperature in the Arctic.

The faster temperature increase in the Arctic compared to other regions can be explained by the fact that energy (heat) is transferred from a larger area (heat source) to a smaller one (heat sink). In the summer half-year, the source area of radiative heat is 4.5 times greater than the sink area. As a result, the relative values of thermal energy (temperature) increase.

It is shown that based on the relationships between the patterns of the natural environment in the Arctic and the characteristics of its irradiation, it is possible to predict climate changes and the natural environment state in the Arctic on the basis of the characteristics of irradiation calculated for future time periods.

Список литературы

  1. Alexeyev, G.V., “Manifestation and intensification of global warming in the Arctic”, Fundamental’naja i prikladnaja klimatologija [Fundamental and applied climatology] 1, 11–26 (2015) (in Russian).
  2. Borisenkov, E.P., Altunin, I.V., “Growth of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and its influence on climate”, Doklady AN SSSR [Reports of the USSR Academy of Scienses] 281 (3), 559–561 (1985) (in Russian).
  3. Voeykov, A.I., Climates of the globe, especially of Russia. Collected works (Moscow–Leningrad: USSR Academy of Sciences, 1948. V. 1) (in Russian).
  4. Golubev, V.N., “The role of the Arctic sea ice cover in gas exchange of surface geospheres”, Kriosfera Zemli [Earth’s cryosphere] XIV (4), 17–29 (2010) (in Russian).
  5. Report on climate risks in the Russian Federation (St. Petersburg, 2017) (in Russian).
  6. Eliseyev, A.V., “Global СО2 cycle: main processes and interaction with climate”, Fundamental’naja i prikladnaja klimatologija [Fundamental and applied climatology] 4, 9–31 (2017) (in Russian) DOI: 10.21513/2410-8758-2017-4-9-31.
  7. Monin, A.S., Introduction to the climate theory (Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1982) (in Russian).
  8. Monin, A.S., Berestov, A.A., “New about climate”, Vestnik RAN [Bull. of Russian Academy of Sciences] 75 (2), 126–138 (2005) (in Russian).
  9. Smirnov, B.M., Physics of the global atmosphere (Dolgoprudnyi: ID Intellect, 2017) (in Russian).
  10. Snakin, V.V., “Low-carbon energy and global climate warming”, Zhizn Zemli [Life of the Earth] 46 (1), 4–19 (2024) DOI: 10.29003/m3770.0514-7468.2024_46_1/4-19 (in Russian).
  11. Fedorov, V.M., “Evolution of the Earth’s modern global climate and its possible causes”, Georisk XIV (4), 16–29 (2020) (in Russian).
  12. Fedorov, V.M., Altunin, I.V., Frolov, D.M., “The influence of carbon dioxide of anthropogenic genesis on the thermal regime of the atmosphere and its changes”, Zhizn Zemli [Life of the Earth] 44 (4), 402–414 (2022). DOI: 10.29003/m3115.0514-7468.2022_44_4/402-414 (in Russian).
  13. Fedorov, V.M., “Problems of parameterization of the radiation block of physical and mathematical climate models and the possibilities of their solution”, Uspekhi Fizicheskikh Nauk [Advances in Physical Sciences] 193 (9), 971–988 (2023). DOI: 10.3367/UFNr.2023.03.039339 (in Russian).
  14. Fedorov, V.M., Kostin, A.A., “The Calculation of the Earth’s insolation for the 3000 BC–AD 2999”, Springer Geology I, 181–192 (2020). DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-38177-6_20.
  15. Lisiecki, L.E., Raymo, M.E., “A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic δ18O records”, Paleoceanography 20. PA1003, 1–17 (2005). DOI: 10.1029/2004PA001071.
  16. Petit, J.R., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., et. al., “Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica”, Nature 399, 429–437 (1999).
  17. Veres, D., Bazin, L., Landai,s A., et.al., “The ice core chronology (AICC2012): an optimized multi-parameter and multi-site dating approach for the last 120 thousand years”, Climate of the past 9 (4), 1733–1748 (2013). DOI: 10.5194/cp-9-1733-2013.

References

  1. Alexeyev, G.V., “Manifestation and intensification of global warming in the Arctic”, Fundamental’naja i prikladnaja klimatologija [Fundamental and applied climatology] 1, 11–26 (2015) (in Russian).
  2. Borisenkov, E.P., Altunin, I.V., “Growth of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and its influence on climate”, Doklady AN SSSR [Reports of the USSR Academy of Scienses] 281 (3), 559–561 (1985) (in Russian).
  3. Voeykov, A.I., Climates of the globe, especially of Russia. Collected works (Moscow–Leningrad: USSR Academy of Sciences, 1948. V. 1) (in Russian).
  4. Golubev, V.N., “The role of the Arctic sea ice cover in gas exchange of surface geospheres”, Kriosfera Zemli [Earth’s cryosphere] XIV (4), 17–29 (2010) (in Russian).
  5. Report on climate risks in the Russian Federation (St. Petersburg, 2017) (in Russian).
  6. Eliseyev, A.V., “Global СО2 cycle: main processes and interaction with climate”, Fundamental’naja i prikladnaja klimatologija [Fundamental and applied climatology] 4, 9–31 (2017) (in Russian) DOI: 10.21513/2410-8758-2017-4-9-31.
  7. Monin, A.S., Introduction to the climate theory (Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1982) (in Russian).
  8. Monin, A.S., Berestov, A.A., “New about climate”, Vestnik RAN [Bull. of Russian Academy of Sciences] 75 (2), 126–138 (2005) (in Russian).
  9. Smirnov, B.M., Physics of the global atmosphere (Dolgoprudnyi: ID Intellect, 2017) (in Russian).
  10. Snakin, V.V., “Low-carbon energy and global climate warming”, Zhizn Zemli [Life of the Earth] 46 (1), 4–19 (2024) DOI: 10.29003/m3770.0514-7468.2024_46_1/4-19 (in Russian).
  11. Fedorov, V.M., “Evolution of the Earth’s modern global climate and its possible causes”, Georisk XIV (4), 16–29 (2020) (in Russian).
  12. Fedorov, V.M., Altunin, I.V., Frolov, D.M., “The influence of carbon dioxide of anthropogenic genesis on the thermal regime of the atmosphere and its changes”, Zhizn Zemli [Life of the Earth] 44 (4), 402–414 (2022). DOI: 10.29003/m3115.0514-7468.2022_44_4/402-414 (in Russian).
  13. Fedorov, V.M., “Problems of parameterization of the radiation block of physical and mathematical climate models and the possibilities of their solution”, Uspekhi Fizicheskikh Nauk [Advances in Physical Sciences] 193 (9), 971–988 (2023). DOI: 10.3367/UFNr.2023.03.039339 (in Russian).
  14. Fedorov, V.M., Kostin, A.A., “The Calculation of the Earth’s insolation for the 3000 BC–AD 2999”, Springer Geology I, 181–192 (2020). DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-38177-6_20.
  15. Lisiecki, L.E., Raymo, M.E., “A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic δ18O records”, Paleoceanography 20. PA1003, 1–17 (2005). DOI: 10.1029/2004PA001071.
  16. Petit, J.R., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., et. al., “Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica”, Nature 399, 429–437 (1999).
  17. Veres, D., Bazin, L., Landai,s A., et.al., “The ice core chronology (AICC2012): an optimized multi-parameter and multi-site dating approach for the last 120 thousand years”, Climate of the past 9 (4), 1733–1748 (2013). DOI: 10.5194/cp-9-1733-2013.